China’s ambitious plan to construct a $16.7 billion mega-dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo, also known as the Brahmaputra in India, has unavoidably raised concerns about the potential downstream effects on Bangladesh and India. With a reported 70 GW capacity—more than three times the output of the Three Gorges Dam—the proposed Medog Hydropower Project has raised concerns about hydrological coercion and water weaponization.
India’s water security is largely unthreatened due to geography, hydrology, and dam design. The Brahmaputra River, originating in western Tibet, flows eastward and makes a U-turn near Medog. Despite two-thirds of the river basin in Chinese-controlled Tibet, over 80% of its water volume is generated in India. This is due to rainfall patterns, numerous Indian tributaries, and snow-fed rivers. Most of China’s dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo are run-of-the-river, generating electricity without large reservoirs or long-term water storage.
Run-of-the-river dams, according to experts, cannot dramatically change downstream flows over long time periods, and China’s present dam-building trajectory provides little opportunity to use the Brahmaputra as a geopolitical weapon against India. Himanta Biswa Sarma, the chief minister of Assam, allays concerns, saying that even a little cutback in China’s flow might lessen the devastating effects of the region’s yearly floods and fit in with India’s plans to construct infrastructure for storage and flood control.
